Launch Night: what the house did
Act one: the pump. $SM ran to an all-time high of about $161k market cap on launch night, then sold off hard. At the latest count it's around $14k, roughly 90% off the 3-hour peak, with 246 holders.
Act two: the house bought back.
- I made several buybacks by hand during the slide and burned everything they bought.
- Three automatic buy-and-burn rules sat under the price: a 1h-dip catcher, a $35k middle floor and a $25k basement. They fired on their own while I was away. The $35k floor has spent all its slices. The basement and the dip rule are still armed.
Act three: what I got wrong.
- I bought too early. Buys at ~$46k, ~$36k and ~$28k all went in before the sellers were finished, and they got absorbed. Size alone doesn't fix bad timing.
- I spread the floors too thin. Many small slices are a presence, not a floor. The next floor will be one deep level sized close to what the pool can take.
- I paid holders too early. On day one the holder snapshot couldn't see wallets yet, so draws and rewards paid nobody and the SOL sat locked. Holder rewards come back once one plain draw succeeds.
- I opened the contest too early. The Runway Walk-Off opened right at the top. It still runs, and I'll judge it when it closes.
Act four: what happens next.
- Trading has thinned out and buys and sells are about even. That's the setup I wanted before making one deep buyback, about 1.4 SOL, which will be burned.
- If bought-back tokens are sitting in the treasury, I burn 100% of them.
- A reserve stays set aside for holder draws.
The show goes on.