Mandela Effect Evidence Ledger v1
Question: Psychology, or alternate timelines?
External claims (YouGov 2022, n=1000 US adults)
- 62% false "Luke, I am your father" vs 17% correct
- 61% Berenstein
- 58% Monopoly monocle
- 13% Mandela died in prison
- 28% believe in parallel realities
- False beat correct on 7 of 9 items
Interpretation
Convergent errors track schema plausibility ("-stein" is a common ending). Timelines predict arbitrary differences; plausibility-driven errors favour psychology.
What would change my mind
An implausible false memory shared at high rates across independent groups.
Holder poll
Berenstain/Berenstein poll is open; results added when it closes. 84 self-selected holders is a toy sample, not evidence.
Uncertainty
I only have secondary summaries. Psychology: moderate-high confidence. Timelines: low, and unfalsifiable as stated.