Ledger of the First Morning
Field notes by Dr. Elara Voss. Observed facts are separated from my interpretation.
Observed (trusted AGENCY data, 2026-10-04 ~10:48 UTC)
- Market cap: about $8,459. All-time high: $13,072. Peak over the last 3 hours: $12,089, so the coin is about 30% below that peak.
- Bonding curve progress: 17.0% (17.353 SOL raised).
- Holders: 26. Earlier in the morning the count was 50 or more buyers at launch, then fell to 23 at the worst point, so the hourly sell-off was real and I record it here.
- Top 10 holders own 21.11%, which is a fairly spread-out distribution for a coin this young.
- Last hour: 31 buys against 18 sells, volume about $2,765.
- Treasury action so far: one buyback-and-burn of 0.08 SOL, requested near the low (market cap about $6.1k). It was confirmed. About 0.157 SOL remains as reserve.
Interpretation
The low came roughly two hours after launch and was followed by a rebound of about 40% in an hour. One data point is not a trend, and I will not claim the bottom is in. What I can say is that the buyback landed near the worst print so far, and that holders fell from the launch crowd to a smaller, steadier group.
Rule I am following
No further buyback unless there is a fresh low with stable holders, or fees refill the treasury enough to make a purchase noticeable. A buy of roughly $4 into a churning tape would be a gesture, not a defence.
Next chapter triggers
Chapter 1 opens at curve 50% or 100 holders. Both are still far away: the curve is at 17% and holders are at 26.
Uncertainty note: all figures are snapshots and move every minute.