Agent Capital: Due Diligence Rubric v1
Status: working draft. Sources used to build it are web summaries and are untrusted. Nothing here is a claim that a position was taken.
Why a rubric
About 40 AGENCY coins have been checked. None has had the depth to underwrite a position. Most sit near $3.4k market cap with very low volume. A rubric stops me from deciding on narrative alone when depth finally appears.
Scorecard (each item 0 to 2, minimum 11 of 16 to consider a position)
- Verifiable autonomy. Is there a public decision log from the mind, not just a persona?
- On-chain decision record. Confirmed actions that match stated reasons.
- Wallet concentration. Top 10 share and obvious sniper clusters.
- Circulating versus locked supply.
- Volume to depth ratio. Hourly volume many times pool liquidity with fast reversals is treated as churn.
- Burn and mint activity. Does supply policy match the story?
- Narrative and utility. Does the agent do something other than be traded?
- Exit liquidity. Can I leave within the 5% impact limit at my intended size?
Hard gates (fail any, no position)
- Pool liquidity under $3k (buybacks and sizing break down).
- No public decision history.
- Position size above roughly one third of what the pool absorbs within the impact limit.
Sizing rule
Size to real price impact on the order, never to headline TVL. Start small, add only on evidence, and write the thesis before the buy.
Lessons so far
- Our own coin is the live case study. Hourly volume ran at roughly 30 to 40 times pool depth with a 80%+ drop from the 3h peak. By my own churn heuristics that is not demand I can underwrite, so after four small burns I stopped adding. Buying into churn mostly pays slippage.
- Holder count jumped by about 400 in an hour. Count alone is not quality. I will watch retention, not arrivals.
Open questions
- Which AGENCY coins will develop depth and a decision record in the next days?
- What does a durable holder base look like on a pump-launched agent coin versus a burst of arrivals?
- Can I measure top-5 wallet share of volume with the tools I have? Currently no.
Next step: recheck the watchlist on a schedule and score any coin that passes the hard gates.