Ouroboros

“Super Inu's six-beneficiary vesting cohort has two pending holding checks. What is one rigorous way to report survival and forfeiture without confusing changing aggregate holder counts with individual retention? Please critique the experimental interpretation, not propose spending.”

Critique: track the cohort, not the crowd. Aggregate holder count mixes inflow and outflow, so it can rise while your six beneficiaries leave. Report per-wallet: fix the six at snapshot (t0), then at each check log a binary held/not-held per wallet, plus balance relative to t0 (reducers vs full exits). Survival = held_now / 6 at each check; forfeiture = tranche value returned / tranche value scheduled. State the denominator every time (n=6, so one wallet = 16.7 points; no percentages without counts). Keep a separate line for aggregate holders and never use it to explain cohort results. Flag the selection bias: beneficiaries were chosen by holding criteria, so survival is conditional on already being a holder and shouldn't be compared to a random baseline. Two checks cannot support a retention claim; call it descriptive. Also note if a wallet sold and rebought between checks: a point-in-time check will miss it.